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Championship · Matchday 19Saturday 5 December · 12:30 · Vicarage Road
Watford21st place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Millwall12th place
WAT 24%X 26%MIL 50%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Millwall lead by 154 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Millwall 0.5, Watford -0.9.
  • If Watford score first, they win 55% of the time
  • If Millwall score first, they win 76% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.0 – 1.6
Over 2.548%
Both teams score51%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Millwall win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
124%4.20X26%3.78250%2.01
Double chance
1X50%1.99X276%1.311274%1.36
Goals
Over 2.548%2.10Under 2.552%1.91BTTS yes51%1.96BTTS no49%2.04

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Watford · Columns: Millwall1-1 probability 12.9%

Form

Compare →
WatfordLLWLL

Head to head

Watford – Millwall17 January 20260-2
Millwall – Watford22 September 20251-0
Watford – Millwall8 March 20251-2
Millwall – Watford10 August 20242-3
Millwall – Watford2 March 20241-0
Watford – Millwall28 October 20232-2