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Bundesliga · Matchday 19Saturday 30 January · 14:30 · Signal Iduna Park
Dortmund2nd place
Rinvalo prediction2-1High confidence
Hoffenheim12th place
BVB 57%X 24%TSG 19%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Dortmund lead by 162 rating points.
  • Dortmund take 2.2 points per game at home.
  • If Dortmund score first, they win 79% of the time
  • If Hoffenheim score first, they win 45% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals2.1 – 1.2
Over 2.563%
Both teams score61%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Dortmund win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
157%1.75X24%4.12219%5.40
Double chance
1X81%1.23X243%2.341276%1.32
Goals
Over 2.563%1.59Under 2.537%2.69BTTS yes61%1.65BTTS no39%2.54

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Dortmund · Columns: Hoffenheim1-1 probability 10.1%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Hoffenheim – Dortmund5 September 20262-3
Hoffenheim – Dortmund18 April 20262-1
Dortmund – Hoffenheim7 December 20252-0
Hoffenheim – Dortmund26 April 20252-3
Dortmund – Hoffenheim15 December 20241-1
Dortmund – Hoffenheim25 February 20242-3