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Bundesliga · Matchday 19Saturday 30 January · 14:30 · MEWA ARENA
Mainz9th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1High confidence
Hamburg15th place
M05 55%X 25%HSV 20%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Mainz 0.4, Hamburg -0.7.
  • If Mainz score first, they win 79% of the time
  • If Hamburg score first, they win 48% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.9 – 1.1
Over 2.556%
Both teams score56%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Mainz win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
155%1.81X25%4.05220%4.99
Double chance
1X80%1.25X245%2.241275%1.33
Goals
Over 2.556%1.79Under 2.544%2.27BTTS yes56%1.79BTTS no44%2.27

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Mainz · Columns: Hamburg1-1 probability 11.3%

Form

Compare →
MainzWLWLL
HamburgWWWLL

Head to head

Hamburg – Mainz6 September 20260-5
Mainz – Hamburg20 February 20261-1
Hamburg – Mainz5 October 20254-0