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Bundesliga · Matchday 19Saturday 30 January · 14:30 · Stadion An der Alten Försterei
Union Berlin16th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
Leverkusen6th place
FCU 29%X 26%B04 45%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Leverkusen lead by 140 rating points.
  • If Union Berlin score first, they win 57% of the time
  • If Leverkusen score first, they win 71% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.7
Over 2.559%
Both teams score61%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Leverkusen win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
129%3.45X26%3.86245%2.22
Double chance
1X55%1.82X271%1.411274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.559%1.71Under 2.541%2.41BTTS yes61%1.64BTTS no39%2.57

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Union Berlin · Columns: Leverkusen1-1 probability 11.7%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Leverkusen – Union Berlin5 September 20264-0
Union Berlin – Leverkusen21 February 20261-0
Leverkusen – Union Berlin4 October 20252-0
Leverkusen – Union Berlin12 April 20250-0
Union Berlin – Leverkusen30 November 20241-2
Union Berlin – Leverkusen6 April 20240-1