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Bundesliga · Matchday 19Saturday 30 January · 14:30 · Red Bull Arena Leipzig
RB Leipzig4th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1High confidence
Werder Bremen5th place
RBL 64%X 21%SVW 14%

Prediction

Key factors
  • RB Leipzig lead by 100 rating points.
  • RB Leipzig take 2.8 points per game at home.
  • xG difference over the last 10: RB Leipzig 1.0, Werder Bremen -0.2.
  • If RB Leipzig score first, they win 83% of the time
  • If Werder Bremen score first, they win 39% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals2.3 – 1.1
Over 2.565%
Both teams score59%
Likeliest score2-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
164%1.55X21%4.75214%6.91
Double chance
1X86%1.17X236%2.821279%1.27
Goals
Over 2.565%1.53Under 2.535%2.88BTTS yes59%1.69BTTS no41%2.45

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: RB Leipzig · Columns: Werder Bremen2-1 probability 9.7%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Werder Bremen – RB Leipzig5 September 20263-1
Werder Bremen – RB Leipzig4 April 20261-2
RB Leipzig – Werder Bremen23 November 20252-0
Werder Bremen – RB Leipzig10 May 20250-0
RB Leipzig – Werder Bremen12 January 20254-2
RB Leipzig – Werder Bremen11 May 20241-1