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Bundesliga · Matchday 19Saturday 30 January · 14:30 · Waldstadion Kaiserlinde
Elversberg7th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
M'gladbach18th place
SVE 45%X 26%BMG 29%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Elversberg take 2.2 points per game at home.
  • If Elversberg score first, they win 70% of the time
  • If M'gladbach score first, they win 55% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals2.0 – 1.6
Over 2.568%
Both teams score68%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Elversberg win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
145%2.21X26%3.86229%3.48
Double chance
1X71%1.40X255%1.831274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.568%1.47Under 2.532%3.14BTTS yes68%1.46BTTS no32%3.16

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Elversberg · Columns: M'gladbach1-1 probability 9.7%

Form

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Head to head

M'gladbach – Elversberg5 September 20263-4