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Bundesliga · Matchday 33Saturday 15 May · 14:30 · Signal Iduna Park
Dortmund2nd place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Köln13th place
BVB 66%X 21%KOE 13%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Dortmund lead by 255 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Dortmund 1.8 points per game, Köln 1.0.
  • Dortmund take 2.2 points per game at home.
  • If Dortmund score first, they win 85% of the time
  • If Köln score first, they win 38% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals2.2 – 0.9
Over 2.559%
Both teams score52%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
166%1.51X21%4.70213%7.97
Double chance
1X87%1.14X234%2.961279%1.27
Goals
Over 2.559%1.70Under 2.541%2.43BTTS yes52%1.91BTTS no48%2.10

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Dortmund · Columns: Köln2-0 probability 11.2%

Form

Compare →
KölnLWLDD

Head to head

Köln – Dortmund7 March 20261-2
Dortmund – Köln25 October 20251-0
Köln – Dortmund20 January 20240-4
Dortmund – Köln19 August 20231-0
Dortmund – Köln18 March 20236-1
Köln – Dortmund1 October 20223-2