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Bundesliga · Matchday 33Saturday 15 May · 14:30 · PreZero Arena
Hoffenheim12th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Mainz9th place
TSG 52%X 25%M05 23%

Prediction

  • If Hoffenheim score first, they win 75% of the time
  • If Mainz score first, they win 50% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals2.0 – 1.3
Over 2.565%
Both teams score64%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Hoffenheim win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
152%1.92X25%4.01223%4.36
Double chance
1X77%1.30X248%2.091275%1.33
Goals
Over 2.565%1.54Under 2.535%2.84BTTS yes64%1.56BTTS no36%2.79

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Hoffenheim · Columns: Mainz1-1 probability 10.1%

Form

Compare →
MainzWLWLL

Head to head

Hoffenheim – Mainz4 April 20261-2
Mainz – Hoffenheim21 November 20251-1
Hoffenheim – Mainz12 April 20252-0
Mainz – Hoffenheim1 December 20242-0
Mainz – Hoffenheim13 April 20244-1
Hoffenheim – Mainz26 November 20231-1