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Bundesliga · Matchday 33Saturday 15 May · 14:30 · Volksparkstadion
Hamburg15th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Low confidence
Freiburg3rd place
HSV 31%X 27%SCF 41%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Freiburg lead by 125 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Freiburg 0.3, Hamburg -0.7.
  • If Hamburg score first, they win 61% of the time
  • If Freiburg score first, they win 69% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.5
Over 2.553%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Freiburg win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
131%3.21X27%3.64241%2.42
Double chance
1X59%1.71X269%1.451273%1.38
Goals
Over 2.553%1.89Under 2.547%2.12BTTS yes57%1.75BTTS no43%2.33

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Hamburg · Columns: Freiburg1-1 probability 12.7%

Form

Compare →
HamburgWWWLL

Head to head

Hamburg – Freiburg10 May 20263-2
Freiburg – Hamburg10 January 20262-1