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Süper Lig · Matchday 8Saturday 17 October · 17:00 · Chobani Stadyumu
Fenerbahçe6th place
Full time3-0Rinvalo's pick: 2-0✓ Result correct
Alanyaspor12th place
FB 70%X 19%ALN 11%

What does the market say?

FenerbahçeDrawAlanyasporRinvalo70%19%11%
Market72%17%10%

✓ Agree · both back Fenerbahçe

Prediction

Predicted: 2-0
Key factors
  • Fenerbahçe lead by 156 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Fenerbahçe 1.1, Alanyaspor -0.1.
  • Fenerbahçe take 2.1 points per game at home.
  • If Fenerbahçe score first, they win 87% of the time
  • If Alanyaspor score first, they win 34% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals2.4 – 0.9
Over 2.563%
Both teams score53%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
170%1.42X19%5.30211%9.29
Double chance
1X89%1.12X230%3.371281%1.23
Goals
Over 2.563%1.58Under 2.537%2.71BTTS yes53%1.88BTTS no47%2.13

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Fenerbahçe · Columns: Alanyaspor3-0 probability 8.8% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Fenerbahçe – Alanyaspor17 October 20263-0
Alanyaspor – Fenerbahçe18 January 20262-3
Fenerbahçe – Alanyaspor17 September 20252-2
Alanyaspor – Fenerbahçe9 February 20250-2
Fenerbahçe – Alanyaspor30 August 20243-0
Fenerbahçe – Alanyaspor11 February 20242-2