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Bundesliga · Matchday 34Saturday 22 May · 14:30 · Europa-Park Stadion
Freiburg3rd place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Low confidence
Dortmund2nd place
SCF 34%X 28%BVB 39%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Dortmund lead by 121 rating points.
  • Dortmund take 1.8 points per game away.
  • If Freiburg score first, they win 63% of the time
  • If Dortmund score first, they win 67% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.5
Over 2.553%
Both teams score58%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Dortmund win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
134%2.98X28%3.62239%2.57
Double chance
1X61%1.64X267%1.501272%1.38
Goals
Over 2.553%1.88Under 2.547%2.13BTTS yes58%1.74BTTS no42%2.36

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Freiburg · Columns: Dortmund1-1 probability 12.7%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Dortmund – Freiburg26 April 20264-0
Freiburg – Dortmund14 December 20251-1
Freiburg – Dortmund5 April 20251-4
Dortmund – Freiburg23 November 20244-0
Dortmund – Freiburg9 February 20243-0
Freiburg – Dortmund16 September 20232-4