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Bundesliga · Matchday 34Saturday 22 May · 14:30 · MEWA ARENA
Mainz9th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Low confidence
Stuttgart11th place
M05 37%X 26%VFB 37%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Mainz 0.4, Stuttgart -0.1.
  • If Mainz score first, they win 63% of the time
  • If Stuttgart score first, they win 63% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.7
Over 2.564%
Both teams score66%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Mainz win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
137%2.69X26%3.87237%2.70
Double chance
1X63%1.59X263%1.591274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.564%1.56Under 2.536%2.80BTTS yes66%1.51BTTS no34%2.95

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Mainz · Columns: Stuttgart1-1 probability 10.7%

Form

Compare →
MainzWLWLL

Head to head

Mainz – Stuttgart7 March 20262-2
Stuttgart – Mainz26 October 20252-1
Mainz – Stuttgart25 January 20252-0
Stuttgart – Mainz31 August 20243-3
Stuttgart – Mainz11 February 20243-1
Mainz – Stuttgart16 September 20231-3