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Ligue 1 · Matchday 9Friday 30 October · 18:00 · Stade Océane
Le Havre18th place
Full time1-5Prediction correct
Paris Saint-Germain1st place
HAC 14%X 20%PSG 65%

What does the market say?

Le HavreDrawParis Saint-GermainRinvalo14%20%65%
Market11%16%72%

✓ Agree · both back Paris Saint-Germain

Prediction

Predicted: 0-2
Key factors
  • Paris Saint-Germain lead by 236 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Paris Saint-Germain 1.6 points per game, Le Havre 0.4.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Paris Saint-Germain 0.7, Le Havre -0.2.
  • If Le Havre score first, they win 40% of the time
  • If Paris Saint-Germain score first, they win 85% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals0.8 – 2.1
Over 2.555%
Both teams score50%
Likeliest score0-2
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
114%7.02X20%4.93265%1.53
Double chance
1X35%2.90X286%1.171280%1.25
Goals
Over 2.555%1.80Under 2.545%2.25BTTS yes50%1.99BTTS no50%2.01

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Le Havre · Columns: Paris Saint-Germain1-5 probability 1.4% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Le Havre – Paris Saint-Germain30 October 20261-5
Le Havre – Paris Saint-Germain28 February 20260-1
Paris Saint-Germain – Le Havre22 November 20253-0
Paris Saint-Germain – Le Havre19 April 20252-1
Le Havre – Paris Saint-Germain16 August 20241-4
Paris Saint-Germain – Le Havre27 April 20243-3