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Ligue 1 · Matchday 9Sunday 1 November · 19:45 · Orange Vélodrome
Marseille6th place
Full time2-0Rinvalo's pick: 2-1✓ Result correct
Toulouse12th place
OM 48%X 26%TFC 26%

What does the market say?

MarseilleDrawToulouseRinvalo48%26%26%
Market49%24%26%

✓ Agree · both back Marseille

Prediction

Predicted: 2-1
  • If Marseille score first, they win 73% of the time
  • If Toulouse score first, they win 54% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.8 – 1.3
Over 2.558%
Both teams score60%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Marseille win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
148%2.08X26%3.86226%3.84
Double chance
1X74%1.35X252%1.921274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.558%1.71Under 2.542%2.41BTTS yes60%1.66BTTS no40%2.52

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Marseille · Columns: Toulouse2-0 probability 7.5% · final score

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Marseille – Toulouse1 November 20262-0
Toulouse – Marseille7 March 20260-1
Marseille – Toulouse29 November 20252-2
Marseille – Toulouse6 April 20253-2
Toulouse – Marseille31 August 20241-3
Toulouse – Marseille21 April 20242-2