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Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Ligue 1 · Matchday 9Friday 30 October · 20:05 · Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy
Lille2nd place
Full time1-0Rinvalo's pick: 1-0✓ Exact score
Lens9th place
LIL 40%X 28%RCL 32%

What does the market say?

LilleDrawLensRinvalo40%28%32%
Market35%28%37%

⚠ Split · Rinvalo Lille 40%, market Lens 37%

Prediction

Predicted: 1-0
Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Lille 2.0 points per game, Lens 0.8.
  • If Lille score first, they win 69% of the time
  • If Lens score first, they win 63% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.2
Over 2.547%
Both teams score52%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Lille win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
140%2.52X28%3.52232%3.14
Double chance
1X68%1.47X260%1.661272%1.40
Goals
Over 2.547%2.15Under 2.553%1.87BTTS yes52%1.91BTTS no48%2.10

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Lille · Columns: Lens1-0 probability 9.8% · final score

Form

Compare →
LilleLWDDW
LensLWWWL

Head to head

Lille – Lens30 October 20261-0
Lille – Lens4 April 20263-0
Lens – Lille20 September 20253-0
Lille – Lens30 March 20251-0
Lens – Lille26 October 20240-2
Lille – Lens29 March 20242-1