TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Bundesliga · Matchday 12Saturday 5 December · 14:30 · Red Bull Arena Leipzig
RB Leipzig4th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1High confidence
Mainz9th place
RBL 65%X 21%M05 14%

Prediction

Key factors
  • RB Leipzig lead by 114 rating points.
  • RB Leipzig take 2.8 points per game at home.
  • xG difference over the last 10: RB Leipzig 1.0, Mainz 0.4.
  • If RB Leipzig score first, they win 84% of the time
  • If Mainz score first, they win 38% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals2.4 – 1.1
Over 2.566%
Both teams score60%
Likeliest score2-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
165%1.54X21%4.81214%7.01
Double chance
1X86%1.17X235%2.851279%1.26
Goals
Over 2.566%1.50Under 2.534%2.98BTTS yes60%1.67BTTS no40%2.50

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: RB Leipzig · Columns: Mainz2-1 probability 9.7%

Form

Compare →
MainzWLWLL

Head to head

RB Leipzig – Mainz31 January 20261-2
Mainz – RB Leipzig13 September 20250-1
RB Leipzig – Mainz1 March 20251-2
Mainz – RB Leipzig19 October 20240-2
RB Leipzig – Mainz30 March 20240-0
Mainz – RB Leipzig4 November 20232-0