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Bundesliga · Matchday 12Saturday 5 December · 14:30 · VELTINS-Arena
Schalke 0417th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1High confidence
Dortmund2nd place
S04 13%X 22%BVB 65%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Dortmund lead by 273 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Dortmund 0.4, Schalke 04 -1.2.
  • Last 5 games: Dortmund 1.8 points per game, Schalke 04 0.4.
  • If Schalke 04 score first, they win 44% of the time
  • If Dortmund score first, they win 87% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 11%
Expected goals0.6 – 1.7
Over 2.540%
Both teams score37%
Likeliest score0-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
113%7.70X22%4.59265%1.53
Double chance
1X35%2.87X287%1.151278%1.28
Goals
Over 2.540%2.48Under 2.560%1.68BTTS yes37%2.71BTTS no63%1.58

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Schalke 04 · Columns: Dortmund0-1 probability 16.5%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Schalke 04 – Dortmund11 March 20232-2
Dortmund – Schalke 0417 September 20221-0