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Bundesliga · Matchday 12Saturday 5 December · 14:30 · Stadion An der Alten Försterei
Union Berlin16th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Hamburg15th place
FCU 44%X 28%HSV 28%

Prediction

  • If Union Berlin score first, they win 73% of the time
  • If Hamburg score first, they win 60% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.1
Over 2.546%
Both teams score51%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Union Berlin win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
144%2.29X28%3.51228%3.58
Double chance
1X72%1.39X256%1.771272%1.40
Goals
Over 2.546%2.17Under 2.554%1.86BTTS yes51%1.94BTTS no49%2.06

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Union Berlin · Columns: Hamburg1-1 probability 13.4%

Form

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Head to head

Hamburg – Union Berlin14 February 20263-2
Union Berlin – Hamburg28 September 20250-0