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Bundesliga · Matchday 12Saturday 5 December · 14:30 · BayArena
Leverkusen6th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1High confidence
M'gladbach18th place
B04 66%X 20%BMG 14%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Leverkusen lead by 147 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Leverkusen 1.8 points per game, M'gladbach 0.8.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Leverkusen 0.1, M'gladbach -0.6.
  • If Leverkusen score first, they win 84% of the time
  • If M'gladbach score first, they win 37% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 3%
Expected goals2.5 – 1.1
Over 2.569%
Both teams score61%
Likeliest score2-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
166%1.51X20%4.93214%7.34
Double chance
1X86%1.16X234%2.951280%1.25
Goals
Over 2.569%1.45Under 2.531%3.20BTTS yes61%1.63BTTS no39%2.58

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Leverkusen · Columns: M'gladbach2-1 probability 9.5%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

M'gladbach – Leverkusen7 February 20261-1
Leverkusen – M'gladbach21 September 20251-1
Leverkusen – M'gladbach18 January 20253-1
M'gladbach – Leverkusen23 August 20242-3
Leverkusen – M'gladbach27 January 20240-0
M'gladbach – Leverkusen26 August 20230-3