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Mon 19:45ATA1-0PAR59%Mon 19:45LOR1-0BRE44%Mon 20:00DEP1-0OSA43%Mon 20:00NEW1-0EVE42%Mon 20:15BEN2-0ALV77%Mon 20:15GIL1-0VSC44%Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%
Premier League · Matchday 9Saturday 31 October · 15:00 · Etihad Stadium
Manchester City2nd place
Full time0-1Prediction wrong
Brighton3rd place
MCI 56%X 24%BHA 20%

What does the market say?

Manchester CityDrawBrightonRinvalo56%24%20%
Market58%22%21%

✓ Agree · both back Manchester City

Prediction

Predicted: 2-1
Key factors
  • Manchester City lead by 103 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Manchester City 3.0 points per game, Brighton 2.0.
  • Manchester City take 2.5 points per game at home.
  • If Manchester City score first, they win 79% of the time
  • If Brighton score first, they win 47% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.9 – 1.1
Over 2.559%
Both teams score58%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Manchester City win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
156%1.80X24%4.08220%5.04
Double chance
1X80%1.25X244%2.261276%1.32
Goals
Over 2.559%1.70Under 2.541%2.43BTTS yes58%1.72BTTS no42%2.38

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Manchester City · Columns: Brighton0-1 probability 4.5% · final score

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Manchester City – Brighton31 October 20260-1
Manchester City – Brighton7 January 20261-1
Brighton – Manchester City31 August 20252-1
Manchester City – Brighton15 March 20252-2
Brighton – Manchester City9 November 20242-1
Brighton – Manchester City25 April 20240-4