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Premier League · Matchday 9Saturday 31 October · 12:30 · Stamford Bridge
Chelsea4th place
Full time2-0Rinvalo's pick: 1-2✕ Missed
Manchester United17th place
CHE 30%X 27%MUN 43%

What does the market say?

ChelseaDrawManchester UnitedRinvalo30%27%43%
Market52%24%24%

⚠ Split · Rinvalo Manchester United 43%, market Chelsea 52%

Prediction

Predicted: 1-2
Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Manchester United 0.6, Chelsea -0.5.
  • Manchester United lead by 63 rating points.
  • If Chelsea score first, they win 58% of the time
  • If Manchester United score first, they win 70% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.7
Over 2.560%
Both teams score63%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Manchester United win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
130%3.35X27%3.75243%2.30
Double chance
1X57%1.77X270%1.431273%1.36
Goals
Over 2.560%1.66Under 2.540%2.52BTTS yes63%1.60BTTS no37%2.67

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Chelsea · Columns: Manchester United2-0 probability 4.3% · final score

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Chelsea – Manchester United31 October 20262-0
Chelsea – Manchester United18 April 20260-1
Manchester United – Chelsea20 September 20252-1
Chelsea – Manchester United16 May 20251-0
Manchester United – Chelsea3 November 20241-1
Chelsea – Manchester United4 April 20244-3