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Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Champions League · League phase, matchday 5Tuesday 24 November · 17:45 · Rams Park
Galatasaray23rd place
Rinvalo prediction1-2
Aston Villa2nd place
GS 33%X 22%AVL 45%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Aston Villa lead by 121 points on the European rating.
  • The Premier League average is 162 points above the Süper Lig average.
  • If Galatasaray score first, they win 59% of the time
  • If Aston Villa score first, they win 69% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.6
Over 2.558%
Both teams score61%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Aston Villa win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
133%3.01X22%4.56245%2.23
Double chance
1X55%1.81X267%1.501278%1.28
Goals
Over 2.558%1.72Under 2.542%2.38BTTS yes61%1.64BTTS no39%2.56

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Galatasaray · Columns: Aston Villa1-1 probability 11.8%

Form

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