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Champions League · League phase, matchday 5Tuesday 24 November · 20:00 · Red Bull Arena Leipzig
RB Leipzig30th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1
Lens27th place
RBL 57%X 20%RCL 23%

Prediction

Key factors
  • RB Leipzig lead by 65 points on the European rating.
  • The Bundesliga average is 62 points above the Ligue 1 average.
  • If RB Leipzig score first, they win 78% of the time
  • If Lens score first, they win 48% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.9 – 1.1
Over 2.558%
Both teams score58%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a RB Leipzig win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
157%1.75X20%5.07223%4.32
Double chance
1X77%1.30X243%2.331280%1.25
Goals
Over 2.558%1.72Under 2.542%2.39BTTS yes58%1.73BTTS no42%2.37

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: RB Leipzig · Columns: Lens1-1 probability 11.1%

Form

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