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Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Champions League · League phase, matchday 5Wednesday 25 November · 17:45 · Bank Respublika Arena
Sabah Baku25th place
Rinvalo prediction0-2
Barcelona8th place
SAB 19%X 20%BAR 61%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Barcelona lead by 256 points on the European rating.
  • If Sabah Baku score first, they win 45% of the time
  • If Barcelona score first, they win 82% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.0 – 2.0
Over 2.556%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-2 is the likeliest score within a Barcelona win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
119%5.27X20%5.00261%1.64
Double chance
1X39%2.57X281%1.231280%1.25
Goals
Over 2.556%1.79Under 2.544%2.27BTTS yes54%1.85BTTS no46%2.17

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Sabah Baku · Columns: Barcelona1-1 probability 10.9%

Form

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