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Champions League · League phase, matchday 5Wednesday 25 November · 20:00 · Estádio José Alvalade
Sporting CP12th place
Rinvalo prediction2-0
Manchester United21st place
SCP 62%X 19%MUN 20%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Sporting CP lead by 102 points on the European rating.
  • The Premier League average is 157 points above the Primeira Liga average.
  • If Sporting CP score first, they win 81% of the time
  • If Manchester United score first, they win 44% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals2.0 – 1.0
Over 2.558%
Both teams score55%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-0 is the likeliest score within a Sporting CP win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
162%1.62X19%5.35220%5.08
Double chance
1X80%1.24X238%2.611281%1.23
Goals
Over 2.558%1.73Under 2.542%2.36BTTS yes55%1.81BTTS no45%2.24

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Sporting CP · Columns: Manchester United1-1 probability 10.6%

Form

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