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Champions League · League phase, matchday 7Tuesday 19 January · 20:00 · Villa Park
Aston Villa2nd place
Rinvalo prediction2-1
Dortmund13th place
AVL 52%X 21%BVB 27%

Prediction

Key factors
  • The Premier League average is 58 points above the Bundesliga average.
  • If Aston Villa score first, they win 75% of the time
  • If Dortmund score first, they win 53% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.8 – 1.2
Over 2.558%
Both teams score60%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Aston Villa win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
152%1.91X21%4.85227%3.69
Double chance
1X73%1.37X248%2.101279%1.26
Goals
Over 2.558%1.71Under 2.542%2.40BTTS yes60%1.67BTTS no40%2.48

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Aston Villa · Columns: Dortmund1-1 probability 11.4%

Form

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