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Champions League · League phase, matchday 8Wednesday 27 January · 20:00 · Emirates Stadium
Arsenal7th place
Rinvalo prediction2-0
Sabah Baku25th place
ARS 84%X 10%SAB 5%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Arsenal lead by 360 points on the European rating.
  • If Arsenal score first, they win 96% of the time
  • If Sabah Baku score first, they win 23% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals2.5 – 0.3
Over 2.553%
Both teams score27%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
184%1.18X10%9.5725%19.61
Double chance
1X95%1.05X216%6.431290%1.12
Goals
Over 2.553%1.87Under 2.547%2.15BTTS yes27%3.68BTTS no73%1.37

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Arsenal · Columns: Sabah Baku2-0 probability 18.2%

Form

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