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Champions League · League phase, matchday 8Wednesday 27 January · 20:00 · Riyadh Air Metropolitano
Atlético Madrid16th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1
Fenerbahçe31st place
ATM 60%X 19%FB 21%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Atlético Madrid lead by 85 points on the European rating.
  • If Atlético Madrid score first, they win 80% of the time
  • If Fenerbahçe score first, they win 46% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals2.0 – 1.0
Over 2.558%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Atlético Madrid win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
160%1.68X19%5.21221%4.70
Double chance
1X79%1.27X240%2.471281%1.24
Goals
Over 2.558%1.73Under 2.542%2.38BTTS yes57%1.77BTTS no43%2.30

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Atlético Madrid · Columns: Fenerbahçe1-1 probability 10.8%

Form

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