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Conference League · League phase, matchday 3Thursday 5 November · 20:00 · AIL Arena
Lugano2nd place
Rinvalo prediction2-0
Kauno Žalgiris36th place
LUG 63%X 18%KAU 19%

What does the market say?

LuganoDrawKauno ŽalgirisRinvalo63%18%19%
Market78%14%7%

✓ Agree · both back Lugano

Prediction

Key factors
  • Lugano lead by 113 points on the European rating.
  • If Lugano score first, they win 82% of the time
  • If Kauno Žalgiris score first, they win 43% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals2.0 – 1.0
Over 2.557%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-0 is the likeliest score within a Lugano win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
163%1.59X18%5.42219%5.40
Double chance
1X81%1.23X237%2.711282%1.23
Goals
Over 2.557%1.74Market 69%Under 2.543%2.35Market 31%BTTS yes54%1.84Market 50%BTTS no46%2.18Market 50%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Lugano · Columns: Kauno Žalgiris1-1 probability 10.5%

Form

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