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Conference League · League phase, matchday 3Thursday 5 November · 20:00 · De Grolsch Veste
Twente6th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1
Pafos FC27th place
TWE 58%X 20%PAF 23%

What does the market say?

TwenteDrawPafos FCRinvalo58%20%23%
Market73%16%12%

✓ Agree · both back Twente

Prediction

Key factors
  • Twente lead by 68 points on the European rating.
  • If Twente score first, they win 79% of the time
  • If Pafos FC score first, they win 48% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.9 – 1.1
Over 2.558%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Twente win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
158%1.74X20%5.07223%4.41
Double chance
1X77%1.29X242%2.361280%1.25
Goals
Over 2.558%1.73Market 65%Under 2.542%2.38Market 35%BTTS yes57%1.74Market 51%BTTS no43%2.35Market 49%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Twente · Columns: Pafos FC1-1 probability 11.0%

Form

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