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Europa League · League phase, matchday 3Thursday 22 October · 17:45 · Yerevan Football Academy
Ararat-Armenia36th place
Full time0-4Prediction wrong
AZ Alkmaar10th place
ARA 44%X 22%AZ 35%

Prediction

Predicted: 2-1
  • If Ararat-Armenia score first, they win 68% of the time
  • If AZ Alkmaar score first, they win 60% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.4
Over 2.558%
Both teams score61%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Ararat-Armenia win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
144%2.29X22%4.58235%2.90
Double chance
1X65%1.53X256%1.771278%1.28
Goals
Over 2.558%1.72Under 2.542%2.40BTTS yes61%1.63BTTS no39%2.59

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Ararat-Armenia · Columns: AZ Alkmaar0-4 probability 0.8% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Ararat-Armenia – AZ Alkmaar22 October 20260-4