TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Europa League · League phase, matchday 3Thursday 22 October · 17:45 · Joseph Marien Stadium
Union Saint-Gilloise6th place
Full time4-0Rinvalo's pick: 2-1✓ Result correct
Hapoel Be'er Sheva30th place
GIL 55%X 20%HAP 25%

Prediction

Predicted: 2-1
Key factors
  • Union Saint-Gilloise lead by 44 points on the European rating.
  • If Union Saint-Gilloise score first, they win 76% of the time
  • If Hapoel Be'er Sheva score first, they win 51% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.9 – 1.2
Over 2.558%
Both teams score59%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Union Saint-Gilloise win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
155%1.83X20%4.91225%3.99
Double chance
1X75%1.33X245%2.201280%1.26
Goals
Over 2.558%1.72Under 2.542%2.38BTTS yes59%1.70BTTS no41%2.42

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Union Saint-Gilloise · Columns: Hapoel Be'er Sheva4-0 probability 2.4% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Union Saint-Gilloise – Hapoel Be'er Sheva22 October 20264-0