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Europa League · League phase, matchday 3Thursday 22 October · 20:00 · Vitality Stadium
Bournemouth3rd place
Full time3-0Rinvalo's pick: 2-1✓ Result correct
Milan24th place
BOU 59%X 19%MIL 21%

Prediction

Predicted: 2-1
Key factors
  • Bournemouth lead by 80 points on the European rating.
  • The Premier League average is 121 points above the Serie A average.
  • If Bournemouth score first, they win 80% of the time
  • If Milan score first, they win 47% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.9 – 1.1
Over 2.558%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Bournemouth win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
159%1.69X19%5.15221%4.65
Double chance
1X79%1.27X241%2.441281%1.24
Goals
Over 2.558%1.73Under 2.542%2.37BTTS yes57%1.77BTTS no43%2.30

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Bournemouth · Columns: Milan3-0 probability 6.1% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Bournemouth – Milan22 October 20263-0