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Europa League · League phase, matchday 3Thursday 22 October · 17:45 · Merkur Arena Graz
Sturm Graz19th place
Full time1-0Rinvalo's pick: 2-1✓ Result correct
Marseille34th place
STU 41%X 22%OM 37%

Prediction

Predicted: 2-1
  • If Sturm Graz score first, they win 66% of the time
  • If Marseille score first, they win 63% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.5
Over 2.558%
Both teams score62%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Sturm Graz win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
141%2.46X22%4.54237%2.68
Double chance
1X63%1.60X259%1.681278%1.28
Goals
Over 2.558%1.72Under 2.542%2.39BTTS yes62%1.63BTTS no38%2.60

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Sturm Graz · Columns: Marseille1-0 probability 6.8% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Sturm Graz – Marseille22 October 20261-0