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Europa League · League phase, matchday 3Thursday 22 October · 20:00 · Stadion Z'dežele
Celje29th place
Full time2-2Rinvalo's pick: 2-1✕ Missed
Red Bull Salzburg21st place
CEL 56%X 20%RED 24%

Prediction

Predicted: 2-1
Key factors
  • Celje lead by 56 points on the European rating.
  • If Celje score first, they win 77% of the time
  • If Red Bull Salzburg score first, they win 49% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.9 – 1.1
Over 2.558%
Both teams score58%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Celje win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
156%1.79X20%4.98224%4.18
Double chance
1X76%1.31X244%2.271280%1.25
Goals
Over 2.558%1.72Under 2.542%2.38BTTS yes58%1.72BTTS no42%2.39

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
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5
Rows: Celje · Columns: Red Bull Salzburg2-2 probability 5.5% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Celje – Red Bull Salzburg22 October 20262-2