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Europa League · League phase, matchday 3Thursday 22 October · 20:00 · PreZero Arena
Hoffenheim23rd place
Full time3-0Rinvalo's pick: 1-2✕ Missed
Lyon12th place
TSG 37%X 22%OL 41%

Prediction

Predicted: 1-2
Key factors
  • Lyon lead by 92 points on the European rating.
  • The Bundesliga average is 56 points above the Ligue 1 average.
  • If Hoffenheim score first, they win 62% of the time
  • If Lyon score first, they win 66% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.6
Over 2.558%
Both teams score61%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Lyon win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
137%2.71X22%4.51241%2.45
Double chance
1X59%1.69X263%1.591278%1.28
Goals
Over 2.558%1.72Under 2.542%2.38BTTS yes61%1.63BTTS no39%2.59

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Hoffenheim · Columns: Lyon3-0 probability 2.5% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Hoffenheim – Lyon22 October 20263-0