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Europa League · League phase, matchday 3Thursday 22 October · 20:00 · Åråsen Stadion
Lillestrøm31st place
Full time0-6Prediction wrong
Real Sociedad14th place
LIL 57%X 20%RSO 23%

Prediction

Predicted: 2-1
Key factors
  • Lillestrøm lead by 64 points on the European rating.
  • If Lillestrøm score first, they win 78% of the time
  • If Real Sociedad score first, they win 48% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.9 – 1.1
Over 2.558%
Both teams score58%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Lillestrøm win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
157%1.75X20%5.03223%4.33
Double chance
1X77%1.30X243%2.331280%1.25
Goals
Over 2.558%1.73Under 2.542%2.38BTTS yes58%1.73BTTS no42%2.36

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Lillestrøm · Columns: Real Sociedad0-6 probability 0.0% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Lillestrøm – Real Sociedad22 October 20260-6