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Championship · Matchday 39Saturday 20 March · 15:00 · SToK Cae Ras
Wrexham18th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Stoke City7th place
WRE 45%X 29%STK 26%

Prediction

  • If Wrexham score first, they win 74% of the time
  • If Stoke City score first, they win 58% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.1
Over 2.547%
Both teams score52%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Wrexham win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
145%2.22X29%3.50226%3.79
Double chance
1X74%1.36X255%1.821271%1.40
Goals
Over 2.547%2.14Under 2.553%1.87BTTS yes52%1.94BTTS no49%2.06

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Wrexham · Columns: Stoke City1-1 probability 13.3%

Form

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Head to head

Wrexham – Stoke City18 April 20262-0
Stoke City – Wrexham18 October 20251-0