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Primeira Liga · Matchday 14Sunday 13 December · 16:00 · Estádio do Fontelo
Académico de Viseu6th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Low confidence
Arouca5th place
ACV 33%X 29%ARO 39%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Arouca 0.0, Académico de Viseu -0.5.
  • If Académico de Viseu score first, they win 63% of the time
  • If Arouca score first, they win 69% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.3
Over 2.547%
Both teams score53%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Arouca win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
133%3.07X29%3.47239%2.59
Double chance
1X61%1.63X267%1.481271%1.40
Goals
Over 2.547%2.13Under 2.553%1.89BTTS yes53%1.89BTTS no47%2.12

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Académico de Viseu · Columns: Arouca1-1 probability 13.5%

Form

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