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Primeira Liga · Matchday 14Sunday 13 December · 16:00 · Estádio do Marítimo
Marítimo14th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Low confidence
Rio Ave16th place
MAR 39%X 28%RAV 33%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Marítimo -0.5, Rio Ave -1.0.
  • If Marítimo score first, they win 68% of the time
  • If Rio Ave score first, they win 63% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.3
Over 2.552%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Marítimo win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
139%2.56X28%3.53233%3.06
Double chance
1X67%1.48X261%1.641272%1.40
Goals
Over 2.552%1.93Under 2.548%2.07BTTS yes57%1.77BTTS no43%2.30

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Marítimo · Columns: Rio Ave1-1 probability 12.9%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Marítimo – Rio Ave7 May 20232-2
Rio Ave – Marítimo23 December 20221-1