TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Primeira Liga · Matchday 14Sunday 13 December · 16:00 · Estádio da Luz
Benfica2nd place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Braga7th place
BEN 61%X 24%SCB 15%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Benfica lead by 166 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Benfica 2.4 points per game, Braga 0.8.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Benfica 1.5, Braga 0.6.
  • If Benfica score first, they win 83% of the time
  • If Braga score first, they win 43% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals2.0 – 0.9
Over 2.557%
Both teams score53%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-0 is the likeliest score within a Benfica win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
161%1.64X24%4.25215%6.48
Double chance
1X85%1.18X239%2.571276%1.31
Goals
Over 2.557%1.77Under 2.543%2.30BTTS yes53%1.87BTTS no47%2.15

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Benfica · Columns: Braga1-1 probability 10.6%

Form

Compare →
BenficaWLWWW
BragaWDLLW

Head to head

Benfica – Braga11 May 20262-2
Braga – Benfica28 December 20252-2
Braga – Benfica17 May 20251-1
Benfica – Braga4 January 20251-2
Benfica – Braga27 April 20243-1
Braga – Benfica17 December 20230-1