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Primeira Liga · Matchday 14Sunday 13 December · 16:00 · Estádio do Dragão
Porto1st place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Estrela Amadora12th place
POR 80%X 15%EAM 6%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Porto lead by 356 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Porto 3.0 points per game, Estrela Amadora 0.2.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Porto 1.4, Estrela Amadora -0.1.
  • If Porto score first, they win 93% of the time
  • If Estrela Amadora score first, they win 26% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals2.6 – 0.6
Over 2.561%
Both teams score41%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
180%1.26X15%6.8426%17.18
Double chance
1X94%1.06X220%4.891285%1.17
Goals
Over 2.561%1.65Under 2.539%2.53BTTS yes41%2.44BTTS no59%1.69

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Porto · Columns: Estrela Amadora2-0 probability 14.2%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Estrela Amadora – Porto26 April 20261-2
Porto – Estrela Amadora15 December 20253-1
Estrela Amadora – Porto26 April 20252-0
Porto – Estrela Amadora16 December 20242-0
Porto – Estrela Amadora17 February 20242-0
Estrela Amadora – Porto15 September 20230-1