TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Primeira Liga · Matchday 14Sunday 13 December · 16:00 · Estádio D. Afonso Henriques
Vitória de Guimarães13th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Alverca10th place
VSC 44%X 29%ALV 27%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Vitória de Guimarães 0.6, Alverca -0.3.
  • If Vitória de Guimarães score first, they win 74% of the time
  • If Alverca score first, they win 60% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.0
Over 2.542%
Both teams score48%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Vitória de Guimarães win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
144%2.28X29%3.49227%3.64
Double chance
1X73%1.38X256%1.781271%1.40
Goals
Over 2.542%2.35Under 2.558%1.74BTTS yes48%2.07BTTS no52%1.94

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Vitória de Guimarães · Columns: Alverca1-1 probability 13.7%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Vitória de Guimarães – Alverca28 February 20261-1
Alverca – Vitória de Guimarães28 September 20252-0