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Eredivisie · Matchday 24Sunday 28 February · 16:00 · Johan Cruijff ArenA
Ajax2nd place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Low confidence
Feyenoord1st place
AJA 34%X 27%FEY 39%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Feyenoord take 2.4 points per game away.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Feyenoord 1.6, Ajax 0.9.
  • Derby match.
  • If Ajax score first, they win 62% of the time
  • If Feyenoord score first, they win 66% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.6
Over 2.560%
Both teams score63%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Feyenoord win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
134%2.93X27%3.76239%2.55
Double chance
1X61%1.65X266%1.521273%1.36
Goals
Over 2.560%1.68Under 2.540%2.48BTTS yes63%1.60BTTS no37%2.67

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Ajax · Columns: Feyenoord1-1 probability 11.6%

Form

Compare →
AjaxDDWWW

Head to head

Feyenoord – Ajax22 March 20261-1
Ajax – Feyenoord14 December 20252-0
Ajax – Feyenoord2 February 20252-1
Feyenoord – Ajax30 October 20240-2
Feyenoord – Ajax7 April 20246-0
Ajax – Feyenoord27 September 20230-4