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Eredivisie · Matchday 24Sunday 28 February · 16:00 · Van Donge and De Roo Stadion
Excelsior15th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
Heerenveen7th place
EXC 27%X 26%HEE 47%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Heerenveen 2.4 points per game, Excelsior 0.2.
  • Heerenveen lead by 129 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Heerenveen 0.2, Excelsior -1.1.
  • If Excelsior score first, they win 55% of the time
  • If Heerenveen score first, they win 73% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.8
Over 2.558%
Both teams score60%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Heerenveen win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
127%3.73X26%3.88247%2.11
Double chance
1X53%1.90X273%1.371274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.558%1.71Under 2.542%2.41BTTS yes60%1.65BTTS no40%2.53

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Excelsior · Columns: Heerenveen1-1 probability 11.6%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Heerenveen – Excelsior16 October 20264-0
Excelsior – Heerenveen7 March 20261-2
Heerenveen – Excelsior4 October 20252-1
Excelsior – Heerenveen19 January 20243-0
Heerenveen – Excelsior23 September 20230-3
Heerenveen – Excelsior13 May 20230-0