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Eredivisie · Matchday 24Sunday 28 February · 16:00 · Spartastadion
Sparta Rotterdam11th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2High confidence
PSV Eindhoven3rd place
SPA 14%X 18%PSV 68%

Prediction

Key factors
  • PSV Eindhoven lead by 284 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: PSV Eindhoven 1.1, Sparta Rotterdam 0.3.
  • If Sparta Rotterdam score first, they win 34% of the time
  • If PSV Eindhoven score first, they win 84% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 2%
Expected goals1.3 – 2.8
Over 2.578%
Both teams score69%
Likeliest score1-2
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
114%7.10X18%5.64268%1.47
Double chance
1X32%3.14X286%1.161282%1.22
Goals
Over 2.578%1.28Under 2.522%4.56BTTS yes69%1.45BTTS no31%3.22

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
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5
Rows: Sparta Rotterdam · Columns: PSV Eindhoven1-2 probability 8.4%

Form

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Head to head

PSV Eindhoven – Sparta Rotterdam13 September 20264-1
Sparta Rotterdam – PSV Eindhoven11 April 20260-2
PSV Eindhoven – Sparta Rotterdam9 August 20256-1
Sparta Rotterdam – PSV Eindhoven18 May 20251-3
PSV Eindhoven – Sparta Rotterdam5 October 20242-1
PSV Eindhoven – Sparta Rotterdam5 May 20244-2