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Eredivisie · Matchday 24Sunday 28 February · 16:00 · Goffertstadion
NEC Nijmegen13th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Low confidence
AZ Alkmaar5th place
NEC 32%X 27%AZ 41%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: AZ Alkmaar 0.8, NEC Nijmegen -0.1.
  • If NEC Nijmegen score first, they win 60% of the time
  • If AZ Alkmaar score first, they win 68% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.6
Over 2.557%
Both teams score60%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a AZ Alkmaar win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
132%3.13X27%3.76241%2.41
Double chance
1X59%1.71X268%1.471273%1.36
Goals
Over 2.557%1.75Under 2.543%2.33BTTS yes60%1.66BTTS no40%2.53

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: NEC Nijmegen · Columns: AZ Alkmaar1-1 probability 12.0%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

AZ Alkmaar – NEC Nijmegen31 January 20261-3
NEC Nijmegen – AZ Alkmaar28 September 20252-1
NEC Nijmegen – AZ Alkmaar29 March 20253-3
AZ Alkmaar – NEC Nijmegen17 August 20241-0
NEC Nijmegen – AZ Alkmaar28 April 20240-3
AZ Alkmaar – NEC Nijmegen6 December 20231-2