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Eredivisie · Matchday 24Sunday 28 February · 16:00 · Fortuna Sittard Stadion
Fortuna Sittard6th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
Utrecht12th place
FOR 31%X 27%UTR 42%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Utrecht -0.6, Fortuna Sittard -1.3.
  • If Fortuna Sittard score first, they win 59% of the time
  • If Utrecht score first, they win 69% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.6
Over 2.558%
Both teams score61%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Utrecht win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
131%3.23X27%3.73242%2.37
Double chance
1X58%1.73X269%1.451273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.558%1.73Under 2.542%2.37BTTS yes61%1.64BTTS no39%2.56

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Fortuna Sittard · Columns: Utrecht1-1 probability 11.9%

Form

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Head to head

Utrecht – Fortuna Sittard17 May 20262-0
Fortuna Sittard – Utrecht20 September 20251-0
Fortuna Sittard – Utrecht18 May 20250-0
Utrecht – Fortuna Sittard22 December 20242-5
Utrecht – Fortuna Sittard11 February 20244-0
Fortuna Sittard – Utrecht28 October 20230-0