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Eredivisie · Matchday 19Sunday 17 January · 13:30 · Johan Cruijff ArenA
Ajax2nd place
Rinvalo prediction2-1High confidence
Groningen8th place
AJA 60%X 23%GRO 17%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Ajax lead by 136 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Ajax 0.9, Groningen -0.2.
  • Last 5 games: Ajax 2.2 points per game, Groningen 1.4.
  • If Ajax score first, they win 81% of the time
  • If Groningen score first, they win 43% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals2.2 – 1.1
Over 2.564%
Both teams score60%
Likeliest score2-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
160%1.65X23%4.42217%5.91
Double chance
1X83%1.20X240%2.531277%1.29
Goals
Over 2.564%1.57Under 2.536%2.74BTTS yes60%1.67BTTS no40%2.49

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Ajax · Columns: Groningen2-1 probability 9.8%

Form

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AjaxDDWWW

Head to head

Groningen – Ajax18 October 20262-5
Groningen – Ajax7 March 20263-1
Ajax – Groningen2 December 20252-0
Groningen – Ajax14 May 20252-2
Ajax – Groningen6 October 20243-1
Groningen – Ajax14 May 20232-3