TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Eredivisie · Matchday 19Sunday 17 January · 13:30 · De Adelaarshorst
Go Ahead Eagles10th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
AZ Alkmaar5th place
GAE 25%X 25%AZ 50%

Prediction

Key factors
  • AZ Alkmaar lead by 116 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: AZ Alkmaar 0.8, Go Ahead Eagles 0.0.
  • If Go Ahead Eagles score first, they win 53% of the time
  • If AZ Alkmaar score first, they win 74% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.8
Over 2.560%
Both teams score61%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a AZ Alkmaar win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
125%3.96X25%3.98250%2.01
Double chance
1X50%1.99X275%1.341275%1.34
Goals
Over 2.560%1.66Under 2.540%2.53BTTS yes61%1.63BTTS no39%2.60

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Go Ahead Eagles · Columns: AZ Alkmaar1-1 probability 11.1%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

AZ Alkmaar – Go Ahead Eagles29 August 20265-2
Go Ahead Eagles – AZ Alkmaar23 April 20260-0
AZ Alkmaar – Go Ahead Eagles7 December 20252-2
Go Ahead Eagles – AZ Alkmaar4 May 20250-3
AZ Alkmaar – Go Ahead Eagles27 October 20242-2
Go Ahead Eagles – AZ Alkmaar12 May 20240-3